Russia May Resort to Currency Restrictions If Outflows Continue to Mount

Russian net capital outflows probably doubled last year and the government may resort to currency restrictions if the pace doesn’t ease in 2015, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Capital controls are likely if private money leaves at a $240 billion annualized rate in 2015, or $60 billion this quarter, according to the median estimate of 14 economists. Outflows more than tripled to $48 billion in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, pushing last year’s total to $133.3 billion, according to the survey. That’s the most since in 2008 and compares with $61 billion in 2013. Russia last had inflows in 2007, according to central bank data. Capital flight is bleeding an economy already squeezed by sanctions over Ukraine and the lowest oil prices since 2009. With investors heading for the exit, outflows are blunting efforts to reverse Russia’s biggest currency crisis since 1998, undermining business confidence and driving up borrowing costs. By Andre Tartar and Anna Andrianova

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